1. Top 10 Picks -- I think trading into the Top 10 will be rare but we may see trades inside the Top 10 if a team really wants to get ahead of someone for a certain player. The 5th year option price on a Top 10 pick is so much bigger than the 5th year option price on 11-32. I think there could be tons of movement between 11-32. I am talking get out your scorecard kids, things are about to get messy.
2. Teams most likely trade: Bills, Eagles, Patriots, Steelers, Giants
3. Teams least likely to trade: Titans, Cardinals, Packers, Bengals
4. Players most likely to be targeted in a trade up: Stephon Gilmore, CB; Fletcher Cox, DT; Matt Kalil, OT (if Minny is stupid enough to pass).
5. Where I am with Eagles -- Brockers or Cox are my leading candidates; Mark Barron comes in behind them; Michael Floyd is my dark horse.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
2012 Mock Draft
1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB -- best decision they can make. I love the possibilities RG3 presents, but Luck fits the mold for a Bruce Arians offense. He looks like Peyton, smells like Peyton, and will do his best to imitate Peyton.
2. Washington Dedskins - RG3 -- Damn, NFC East just got real hard
3. Los Angeles Vikings - Morris Clairborne, CB -- with all those passes quizzing past them, the LA Vikes get a stud corner and look to the OL in 2nd round.
4. Cleveland Browns - Kalil the Destroyer - Mike Holmgren stops crying about the Rams being mean to him and takes the best player on the Board, non-QB edition. High likelihood of a trade out, cause they're the Browns.
5. Tampa Bay Bucaneers - Trent Richardson, RB -- because LaGarrette Blount is not an every down back and Richardson rounds out an offense that should play like it did in 2010, not 2011.
6. St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR -- Let's see what Bradford can do with actual NFL receivers.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Stephon Gilmore, CB -- why, because Gene Smith is crazy....like a fox. Gilmore is fast, tackles very well, and has great hands. He fills a need for the team, but also, I think they probably have in rated this high. Of course, if they could trade back 5 picks and take him, they would and perhaps will.
8. Miami Marinos - Ryan Tannehill, QB -- They need a QB, owner wants a splash. Big upside/bust gamble.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT -- taking the best DT in the draft away from the Eagles. He has big time potential and will likely be the highest rated player on their board. They will not touch Poe. Other option would be Melvin Ingram who would also fill a need. (MH Comment - Eagles are very sad after this pick)
10. Buffalo Bills - Riley Reiff, OT -- A bit of a reach, but they need a tackle and can get a good receiver in the second round.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - Dontari Poe, DT -- a shocking pick for Team Pioli, but if motivated to play from Romeo, he could be a beast in their 3-4. All he needs to do is occupy two lineman at a time. He must be able to do that...right?? Alternate pick would be Kuechly.
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke the Kook, LB -- Pete Carroll is giddy as he hears KCs pick, and skips to the podium.
13. Arizona Cardinals - David DeCastro, OG -- Floyd looks mighty tempting, but their o-line is a mess and the single best offensive line prospect in the draft is there for the taking. He is my cannot miss (unless I get injured) o-line pick.
14. Dallas Cowboys - Melvin Ingram, LB/DE - Bummer as Dallas gets a player they just can't turn down. He'll be a nice bookend for Ware rushing the passer.
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Brockers, DT - highest rated player on my board left. Another shot at finally getting a solid DT. He just barely edges out Mark Barron as the pick.
16 New York Tebows - Courtney Upshaw, Defense - Too much WR depth pushes Floyd and others down. Versatile defender who can pass rush makes sense for Rex.
17. Cincinnati Bengals - Michael Floyd, WR -- add that other threat opposite of Green. Barron is considered but I have Floyd rated higher.
18. San Diego Chargers - Quentin Coples, DE - Boom or bust for a top pass rusher, passing on OL
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE - looking to get more boom from the pass rush and they need somone opposite of Julius Peppers. He is a local product and fits the scheme.
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE - Titans need to revamp interior line, but pass on Glenn to help pass rush with late rising Jones.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Cordy Glenn, OG -- Bengals continue to build on their offensive side of the ball. They will look to defense and running back likley in the next two rounds.
22. Cleveland Browns - Kendall Wright, WR - Browns give Colt a chance to succeed with some real weapons.
23. Detroit Lions - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB - Lions take all of 5 seconds to submit the card and walk away with the 3rd rated CB in the draft. With Gilmore gone so early at 7, Lions were prepared to look at OL or LB, but actually get a highly rated player on their board who realistically should not be here.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Zeitler, OG - Pitt loves mean lineman, Zeitler is not nice. Passes on a good fit in Hightower.
25. Denver Broncos - Jerel Worthy, DT -- Denver lost Brodrick Bunkley to New Orleans and needs an injection of youth along its interior line. He plays in the backfield, has a nose for the ball and is a solid pick here.
26. Houston Texans - Bobbie Massie OT - Wildcard by Houston to replace Eric Winston. Martin falling, Massie rising.
27. New Engalnd Patriots - Andre Branch, DE/OLB - Patriots need to get better on defense and generate more heat from their pass rush. Branch is a solid fit for Belichik as he can play with hand down and likely as a stand up OLB in the 3-4.
28. Green Bay Packers - Mark Barron S - The slide ends, Packers retool aging/injured secondary.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Dont'a Hightower, ILB - a bit of reach on my board, but in all likelihood, the Ravens may have him higher on their board as he is a schematic fit for them. He gets a year of tutelage under Ray Lewis and then slides inside when Ray is done.
30. Niners - Stephen Hill, WR - Niners go for the high upside potential. Could go OL if they like Adams/Martin/Silatalu.
31. New England Patriots - Jonathan Martin, OT - Patriots need an infusion of youth on the O-line. Maritn may be a project and make only play on the rigth side but he fits on the board.
32. Super Bowl Champion New York Giants - Amini Silatalu, OL - Giants could pick any position other than QB, LB, K/P. They stick with the trenches and gamble on greatness.
2. Washington Dedskins - RG3 -- Damn, NFC East just got real hard
3. Los Angeles Vikings - Morris Clairborne, CB -- with all those passes quizzing past them, the LA Vikes get a stud corner and look to the OL in 2nd round.
4. Cleveland Browns - Kalil the Destroyer - Mike Holmgren stops crying about the Rams being mean to him and takes the best player on the Board, non-QB edition. High likelihood of a trade out, cause they're the Browns.
5. Tampa Bay Bucaneers - Trent Richardson, RB -- because LaGarrette Blount is not an every down back and Richardson rounds out an offense that should play like it did in 2010, not 2011.
6. St. Louis Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR -- Let's see what Bradford can do with actual NFL receivers.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Stephon Gilmore, CB -- why, because Gene Smith is crazy....like a fox. Gilmore is fast, tackles very well, and has great hands. He fills a need for the team, but also, I think they probably have in rated this high. Of course, if they could trade back 5 picks and take him, they would and perhaps will.
8. Miami Marinos - Ryan Tannehill, QB -- They need a QB, owner wants a splash. Big upside/bust gamble.
9. Carolina Panthers - Fletcher Cox, DT -- taking the best DT in the draft away from the Eagles. He has big time potential and will likely be the highest rated player on their board. They will not touch Poe. Other option would be Melvin Ingram who would also fill a need. (MH Comment - Eagles are very sad after this pick)
10. Buffalo Bills - Riley Reiff, OT -- A bit of a reach, but they need a tackle and can get a good receiver in the second round.
11. Kansas City Chiefs - Dontari Poe, DT -- a shocking pick for Team Pioli, but if motivated to play from Romeo, he could be a beast in their 3-4. All he needs to do is occupy two lineman at a time. He must be able to do that...right?? Alternate pick would be Kuechly.
12. Seattle Seahawks - Luke the Kook, LB -- Pete Carroll is giddy as he hears KCs pick, and skips to the podium.
13. Arizona Cardinals - David DeCastro, OG -- Floyd looks mighty tempting, but their o-line is a mess and the single best offensive line prospect in the draft is there for the taking. He is my cannot miss (unless I get injured) o-line pick.
14. Dallas Cowboys - Melvin Ingram, LB/DE - Bummer as Dallas gets a player they just can't turn down. He'll be a nice bookend for Ware rushing the passer.
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Brockers, DT - highest rated player on my board left. Another shot at finally getting a solid DT. He just barely edges out Mark Barron as the pick.
16 New York Tebows - Courtney Upshaw, Defense - Too much WR depth pushes Floyd and others down. Versatile defender who can pass rush makes sense for Rex.
17. Cincinnati Bengals - Michael Floyd, WR -- add that other threat opposite of Green. Barron is considered but I have Floyd rated higher.
18. San Diego Chargers - Quentin Coples, DE - Boom or bust for a top pass rusher, passing on OL
19. Chicago Bears - Whitney Mercilus, DE - looking to get more boom from the pass rush and they need somone opposite of Julius Peppers. He is a local product and fits the scheme.
20. Tennessee Titans - Chandler Jones, DE - Titans need to revamp interior line, but pass on Glenn to help pass rush with late rising Jones.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Cordy Glenn, OG -- Bengals continue to build on their offensive side of the ball. They will look to defense and running back likley in the next two rounds.
22. Cleveland Browns - Kendall Wright, WR - Browns give Colt a chance to succeed with some real weapons.
23. Detroit Lions - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB - Lions take all of 5 seconds to submit the card and walk away with the 3rd rated CB in the draft. With Gilmore gone so early at 7, Lions were prepared to look at OL or LB, but actually get a highly rated player on their board who realistically should not be here.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kevin Zeitler, OG - Pitt loves mean lineman, Zeitler is not nice. Passes on a good fit in Hightower.
25. Denver Broncos - Jerel Worthy, DT -- Denver lost Brodrick Bunkley to New Orleans and needs an injection of youth along its interior line. He plays in the backfield, has a nose for the ball and is a solid pick here.
26. Houston Texans - Bobbie Massie OT - Wildcard by Houston to replace Eric Winston. Martin falling, Massie rising.
27. New Engalnd Patriots - Andre Branch, DE/OLB - Patriots need to get better on defense and generate more heat from their pass rush. Branch is a solid fit for Belichik as he can play with hand down and likely as a stand up OLB in the 3-4.
28. Green Bay Packers - Mark Barron S - The slide ends, Packers retool aging/injured secondary.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Dont'a Hightower, ILB - a bit of reach on my board, but in all likelihood, the Ravens may have him higher on their board as he is a schematic fit for them. He gets a year of tutelage under Ray Lewis and then slides inside when Ray is done.
30. Niners - Stephen Hill, WR - Niners go for the high upside potential. Could go OL if they like Adams/Martin/Silatalu.
31. New England Patriots - Jonathan Martin, OT - Patriots need an infusion of youth on the O-line. Maritn may be a project and make only play on the rigth side but he fits on the board.
32. Super Bowl Champion New York Giants - Amini Silatalu, OL - Giants could pick any position other than QB, LB, K/P. They stick with the trenches and gamble on greatness.
Defensive Draft Value Board (ILB and DB)
Round ILB CB S
________________________________________________________________
1 Kuechly, L. Clairborne, M. Barron, M.
Gilmore, S.
Kirkpatrick, D.
Jenkins, J.
________________________________________________________________
2 Hightower, D. Robinson, J. Harrison, M.
Kendricks, M. Bentley, D.
Wagner, B. Johnson, T.
Boykin, B.
_________________________________________________________________
3 Norman, J. Iloka, G.
Hosley, J. Taylor, B.
Dennard, A. Allen, A.
Minnifield, C.
Hayward, C.
Defensive Draft Value Board (DL and OLB)
Round DE DT OLB
________________________________________________________________
1 Ingram, M. Cox, F. Upshaw, C.
Coples,Q. Brockers, M.
Jones, C. Poe, D.
Branch, A. Worthy, J.
Mercilus, W.
________________________________________________________________
2 Perry, N. Still, D. David, L.
Curry, V. Thompson, B. McClellin, S.
Wolfe, D. Brown, Z.
Ta'Amu, A. Lewis, R.
Reyes, K.
_________________________________________________________________
3 Crawford, T. Martin, M. Davis, D.
Winn, B. Robinson, K.
Bradham, N.
Irvin, B.
Offensive Draft Value Board (Line)
Round OT OG C
________________________________________________________________
1 Kalil, M DeCastro, D. Koinz, P.
Reiff, R. Glenn, C.
Martin, J.
Adams, M.
________________________________________________________________
2 Massie, B. Zeitler, K.
Osemele, K. Silatolu, A.
Sanders, Z. Brooks, B.
Allen, J.
_________________________________________________________________
3 Schwartz, M. Brown, J. Jones, B.
Offensive Draft Value Board (Skill Positions)
Round QB WR RB TE
______________________________________________________________________________
1 Luck, A. Blackmon, J Richardson, T. Fleener, C.
Griffin III, R Floyd, M
Tannehill, R Wright, K
______________________________________________________________________________
2 Weeden, B. Hill, S. Martin, D. Allen, D.
Cousins, K. Randle, R. Wilson, D. Charles, O.
Quick, B. Miller, L.
Jeffery, A.
Jenkins, AJ
______________________________________________________________________________
3 Osweiler, B. Sanu, M. James, L. Green, L.
Cousins, K. Adams, J. Pierce, B. Egnew, M.
McNutt, M. Pead, I.
Hilton, T.Y.
Toon, N.
______________________________________________________________________________
1 Luck, A. Blackmon, J Richardson, T. Fleener, C.
Griffin III, R Floyd, M
Tannehill, R Wright, K
______________________________________________________________________________
2 Weeden, B. Hill, S. Martin, D. Allen, D.
Cousins, K. Randle, R. Wilson, D. Charles, O.
Quick, B. Miller, L.
Jeffery, A.
Jenkins, AJ
______________________________________________________________________________
3 Osweiler, B. Sanu, M. James, L. Green, L.
Cousins, K. Adams, J. Pierce, B. Egnew, M.
McNutt, M. Pead, I.
Hilton, T.Y.
Toon, N.
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